Essay: The Voters Anwar Thinks He Won’t Lose- What Johor May Reveal About GE16

Mahi Ramakrishnan shares a piece on the dissolution of the Johor State Assembly, making way for a by-election in Malaysia.

The Myth of the “No-Choice” Voter

The Johor by-election will not determine whether Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim wins or loses the 16th General Election. Politics is rarely that straightforward. Yet it may tell us something equally important: whether the coalition that brought Anwar to Putrajaya can still inspire the people who once carried it there.

The significance of Johor lies not so much in who wins the seat, but in who turns up to vote, who stays home, and why.

For months now, I have been hearing a recurring sentiment from Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters; not from political opponents, but from people who voted for reform, campaigned for reform, and defended reform through some of its darkest years. The frustration is palpable. Not necessarily enough to push them into the arms of Perikatan Nasional (PN), but perhaps enough to make them sit this one out.

And that may be the bigger problem.

For years, Pakatan Harapan has benefited from a political reality that seemed almost immutable. Many Chinese and Indian voters viewed PH as the only viable barrier against a more conservative political project represented by PAS and its allies. The calculation was simple: whatever frustrations they had with PH, the alternative appeared worse.

But fear can only sustain political loyalty for so long.

There is a difference between voting enthusiastically and voting reluctantly. Governments are not always defeated because their opponents gain support. Sometimes they lose because their own supporters become disillusioned and disengaged.

One political observer put it bluntly during a recent conversation.

“The writing is on the wall. They’ve been there for some time. But Anwar either doesn’t see them or believes he can manage them. Why? Because he assumes the non-Malays will eventually come back. Where else are they going to go? They’re not going to vote for PAS. But that’s where he may be misreading the mood. People are fed up. They may not vote for PN, but they may decide not to vote at all.”

Whether that assessment is fair is almost beside the point. What matters is that such conversations are taking place with increasing frequency.

The assumption that non-Malay voters have nowhere else to go has become deeply embedded within Malaysian political discourse. Yet voters rarely appreciate being treated as captive constituents. The more politicians assume loyalty is guaranteed, the more fragile that loyalty can become.

This is where Johor becomes interesting.

Why Johor Matters?

The state has often functioned as a political laboratory for wider national trends. It is UMNO’s birthplace and was once considered untouchable territory for Barisan Nasional. Over the past two decades, however, Johor has undergone significant political and demographic shifts. Urbanisation, younger voters and changing economic realities have transformed the state’s political landscape.

Unlike Penang, which has long leaned towards Pakatan Harapan, or Kelantan, where PAS remains dominant, Johor frequently behaves like a genuine battleground. Political currents that emerge there often find echoes elsewhere.

That does not mean the by-election can predict GE16. Malaysia has witnessed enough by-election surprises over the years to know better than that. Local dynamics matter. Candidate selection matters. Party machinery matters. Turnout matters.

Still, by-elections have a way of revealing undercurrents that larger national contests sometimes obscure. One of those undercurrents may be the emergence of alternatives within the reformist space itself.

The Rafizi Factor

Enter Rafizi Ramli and Bersama.

Whether Bersama wins seats is, at this stage, perhaps the least interesting question. More important is whether it succeeds in capturing public imagination.

Malaysia’s political history is full of movements that began on the fringes before reshaping the national conversation. Anwar’s PKR itself emerged from a movement before it formed the government.

Rafizi’s challenge carries weight because he is not an outsider throwing stones from a distance. He was one of the key architects of the reform movement and one of PKR’s most recognisable strategists. He understands both the strengths and weaknesses of the system because he helped build part of it.

Over roti canai, nasi lemak and teh tarik kurang manis, an activist I spoke to recently summed it up this way:

“Rafizi himself says he may not win. But that isn’t stopping Bersama from contesting. A lot of Malaysians are angry, and they’ve been searching for an alternative. Whether people agree with him or not, he’s offering one.”

The significance of Bersama may therefore lie less in electoral victories and more in what its presence says about the current political mood.

Even if the party secures only a modest share of votes, it could signal that a segment of Malaysians is looking for something beyond the binary choice of Pakatan Harapan versus Perikatan Nasional.

The Strange Bedfellows Problem

There is another dimension to the Johor contest that deserves attention.

UMNO has made it clear that it intends to contest all seats in the state. Legally and politically, there is nothing unusual about that. The cooperation between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional exists primarily at the federal level. There has never been a formal understanding that requires UMNO to surrender political space to PH in every state election or by-election.

Yet politics is often less about what is formally agreed and more about what is implied.

Anwar’s public irritation at UMNO’s stance, including remarks that he was “ready for war”, suggests that the issue runs deeper than seat allocations. The question is not whether UMNO has the right to go solo. Of course it does. The question is what message such a move sends.

To many observers, it reinforces a lingering perception that the PH-UMNO partnership remains transactional rather than ideological. It is an arrangement born of political necessity rather than shared political vision.

For years, Malaysians described the alliance as a “marriage of convenience”. Others called it a coalition of “strange bedfellows”. The labels may have sounded cynical at the time, but they reflected a genuine unease among voters who had spent decades watching PH and UMNO define themselves in opposition to one another.

Johor revives those questions.

If UMNO believes it can eventually regain political dominance on its own, what incentive does it have to remain tied to PH indefinitely? And if PH supporters increasingly view UMNO as a drag on the reform agenda, how sustainable is the partnership in the long term?

The reality is that both sides need each other today. Whether they will still need each other tomorrow is far less certain.

This uncertainty matters because voters are not only evaluating Anwar’s performance as prime minister. They are also assessing the stability of the coalition behind him.

A by-election cannot answer those questions. But it can reveal whether the cracks that many suspected were there from the beginning are becoming harder to ignore.

The Nurul Izzah Question

Another issue hanging over Johor is the persistent speculation surrounding PKR deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar.

Whether the rumours are true is almost secondary. The more revealing question is why they have gained traction.

Nurul Izzah occupies a unique place in Malaysian politics. To many supporters, she remains the embodiment of the reform movement’s ideals, the Puteri Reformasi who stood alongside her family during some of the movement’s most difficult years. To critics, she represents the uncomfortable reality that political dynasties exist even within parties that once challenged the political establishment.

Several PKR supporters I spoke to raised the issue without prompting.

“The biggest suspense right now is Nurul Izzah,” one said. “If she leaves, it would be catastrophic.”

Whether such concerns are grounded in reality or political gossip is not really the point. Rumours gain traction when they resonate with existing anxieties. In this case, they reflect broader questions about PKR’s direction, internal cohesion and relationship with its traditional support base.

Politics is rarely black and white. Parties often face their toughest tests not while fighting for power, but after obtaining it. The compromises required to govern can create tensions between idealism and pragmatism. Activists who once rallied around principles may find themselves struggling with decisions made in the name of political stability.

This is perhaps the challenge confronting Anwar more than any by-election result.

Is Anwar Really Doomed?

Predictions of his political demise have become something of a Malaysian political tradition. They surfaced when he was deputy prime minister. They intensified during his years in prison. They resurfaced after the collapse of the first Pakatan Harapan government.

Yet Anwar remains prime minister.

His political career has been defined by resilience and an extraordinary capacity to outlast opponents. I have seen it first-hand, while covering his ouster from power, his trials, the reformasi protests, and then the premiership for various foreign media organisations. The question, therefore, is not whether he is doomed.

The real question is whether he can renew the coalition that brought him to power.

Can Pakatan Harapan persuade voters that compromise today is necessary to secure reform tomorrow? Can it point to tangible improvements in the cost of living, governance and institutional accountability? Can it maintain support among non-Malay voters while making meaningful inroads among Malays? These questions will matter long after the Johor by-election is over.

A strong PH performance would suggest that dissatisfaction remains manageable. A weak performance could indicate that frustration is hardening into disengagement.

Neither outcome would determine GE16.

Conclusion

Malaysia’s political landscape remains fluid. Alliances can shift. New parties can emerge. Economic conditions can improve or deteriorate. Today’s controversies may be forgotten by the time voters head to the polls.

Yet Johor may provide an early glimpse into something that opinion polls and political speeches often struggle to capture: the mood of voters who once believed deeply in the reform project.

Do they still believe change is possible through Pakatan Harapan?

Or are they beginning to conclude that the movement that promised to transform Malaysian politics has itself been transformed by power?

That, more than the final vote tally, is what makes the Johor by-election worth watching.

Dislaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Kitaab.

About the Author

Mahi Ramakrishnan is the President of PEN Malaysia and the founder of Beyond Borders, where she works closely with refugees and survivors of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) across Southeast Asia. Her creative nonfiction often intersects with her refugee rights advocacy, centring women’s voices and stories of resistance.