Essay: Unverified Stability- Malaysia, Hormuz, and the Cost of Distant Wars

Mahi Ramakrishnan writes on the cost of distant wars as she analyses the impact felt across global south after the ongoing geopolitical crisis.

Malaysia has cautioned its citizens against travelling to Thailand over the Eid period, citing fears they may be stranded due to fuel shortages. It is an unusual advisory; one that reveals how quickly distant geopolitical tensions can begin to shape everyday movement in Southeast Asia. What appears, at first glance, to be a localised disruption is in fact tied to a much larger and more volatile theatre unfolding thousands of kilometres away.

The escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered a more unpredictable phase. Following coordinated strikes, Iran has shifted its response from direct retaliation to calibrated pressure. The Strait of Hormuz has not been fully closed, but neither is it functioning normally. Instead, it has been selectively opened with its flow tightened and loosened in ways that keep global markets in a constant state of uncertainty. Tankers move, but cautiously. Routes remain technically open, but increasingly expensive and unpredictable.